(Note: I touched on this briefly in my last post, but after re-reading it, there wasn't enough breakdown of these two teams and this games history, so I decided this was necessary. I have also changed my prediction.)
The Colorado Buffaloes and Colorado State Rams face off for the 85th time on Sunday September 1st. This is one of the few in-state rivalry games that is played on the first weekend of every season. There have been a few rare exceptions since the series renewed annually in 1995, but this was once the premiere match-up in college football to kickoff the season. The game called for a bigger venue after the Buffs and Rams had been in the national rankings yearly. The Rocky Mountain Showdown kicked off in Denver (initially at the old Mile High Stadium) in 1998. The 1999 game was what finally put CSU on the map in this series and opened up a can of hatred and anger between fans and shot of even more cans of tear gas. This was the notorious tear gas game and what led to no beer sales and some of the weirdest scheduling and decision making for this annual game.
The series hit its highest peak in 2003 and the largest attendance figure of 76,219. This was the year after Bradlee Van Pelt (CSU Jesus or Van Mullet, Van Punk A**, Sh!the@d, etc to CU fans) spiked the ball in the face of Rod Sneed and with both teams coming off successful seasons and expectations as high as ever for CSU, the vitriol was on full display. It was a rainy, cold, dark day and fans got soaked tailgating and the stuff that happened in the parking lots angered many. This game had big play after big play and was roller coaster filled of emotions for both sets of fans. The Buffs prevailed with a late touchdown and the game is thought of as one of the best even though that season was a disappointment for both programs with CU finishing 5-7 and CSU 7-5.
When the Rocky Mountain Showdown returned to Denver in 2006 after two years in Boulder, it had lost much of it's luster and history. Gary Barnett was let go after a scandal full of lies and allegations that had no criminal history attached to them and CU was coming off being blitzed the last 4 games of the year. On top of that Colorado had just lost the previous week to Montana State, a FCS school, and looked lost under peppy Dan Hawkins. The Rams were coming off a bowl loss and had a depletion of talent. The Rams edged out a win in 2006 but finished 4-8.
From 2007-2011 Colorado won every game in Denver (but lost at Folsom in 2009). After being as low as 65,000 fans in 2006, the return to Denver in 2010 brought in the lowest number ever seen there with just under 61,000 tickets sold but seemed more like maybe 55,000 in attendance. In 2011 and 2012 an all-time low was reached in attendance with 57,186 in 2011. Last year's numbers were higher in ticket sales but attendance did not show it since it appeared maybe 30,000 Buff fans showed with 15,000 Ram fans. As of noon on Tuesday, only 47,800 tickets had been sold. Student sales (they started school this week) and single game and discount tickets may add 10% to this total and put the final tickets sold around 52,800.
This attendance numbers are understandable with Colorado coming off its worse season in school history at 1-11 and a losing record in seven consecutive season and Colorado State having a losing record in 6 of 7 seasons. However, there is many bright spots to see coming into this game. Colorado State finished their season with wins in 3 of the last 5 games and they are coming off a win in this Showdown and an offensive minded coach that comes from big time football in Jim McElwain. Colorado has made hires to show they care about football and have a coach with a great pedigree at multiple levels of coaching and results in turning around a program, like the almost extinct San Jose State program, in Mike MacIntyre.
The Rams return 19 starters from a team that beat CU. They have a full year under Jim McElwain's system and their is a very eerie quietness that is coming from Fort Collins. There is a lot of hush-hush about the starting quarterback and what they are doing as a team.
The Colorado State Rams return a very upperclassmen heavy offense with two returning starters at every spot but Wide Receiver. The big question mark is quarterback where Garrett Grayson, Conner Smith and Nick Stevens are competing for the starting job. Grayson and Smith have started games for CSU, while Stevens is a true freshman that has impressed McElwain and made his decision more difficult. The Rams offensive line is big, averaging just over 6-4 and 300 lbs. 4 of the 5 are RS (Redshirt)-Senior with their LT being a RS-Junior. This group paved ways for Donnell Alexander and Chris Nwoke last season. Neither was special last year but combined they had over 1100 yards and 6 scores together. The Rams spread the ball around with no player exceeding 428 yards or 35 receptions. The Rams have always loved to rely on the Tight End under many coaching staffs and this year is no exception with Cartwright and Gillmore running in their double tight single back base offense. The Rams have added some speed and unknown in true frosh REC Rashard Higgins. This offense began putting point on the board late in the season after not eclipsing 21 in the first 7 games, so their comfort should spell some success against CU one would believe. The Rams kicker Jared Roberts and hit every field goal against CU and was 9 for 10 in 2012. He is very solid.
The Rams defense is filled with transfers from JUCO schools that fill the holes a lack of recruiting for McElwain's system had. They return a solid LB corp that doesn't have gawdy numbers but are all solid. Cory James was a nightmare for CU last year and they better have an eye on him in 2013! CSU seems to have more size than they have ever had as a group. They also have a heavy Texas feel to their defense which is where Colorado schools have found the most success. Shaquil Barrett is a force to be reckoned with defensively and this group will push CUs offensive line to step up.
The Colorado Buffaloes start afresh with a new Pistol Offense that has taken over as the craze in the college game with the Spread dying out. The Buffs have been very positive and open about their team. The public was given access to practices until about a week ago and the biggest thing coming out of camp is there seems to be a more organized, crisper practice with more getting done than has been seen for quite some time. How that does in a game? The fans are as lost as they seem to be in Fort Collins on what to expect from their football program.
The good news for the Buffaloes is they have an electrifying playmaker coming back in Paul Richardson. Rather than rush his rehabilitation and put his knee at risk, he sat out the entire 2012 season after a promising 2011 was cut short with injury issues and him playing hobbled to finish out 2011 and then ligament tears in the off-season heading into 2012. Richardson's numbers over an 11 game span from the end of 2010 to mid-2011 was All-American worthy from the end of his freshman season into his sophomore season with 56 reception, 924 yards and 11 touchdowns. Those numbers would put Richardson amongst the Top 10 Receiving seasons in Colorado history. His ceiling appears higher than those numbers with 80-90 reception, 1200-1500 yards and 12 TDs. San Jose State has a REC by the name of Noel Grisgby that this staff believes isn't as talented as Paul Richardson that had 80-1300-9. The Buffs additionally return Christian Powell, a nearly 700 yard back with 2 TDs that missed 2 games, didn't play hardly against CSU and was used sparingly in others. The Buffs additionally have solid possession WR back in Nelson Spruce and Tyler McCulloch. The Buffs have added a slot position and have the speed in DD Goodson that was out of place as a rusher. Their line has all had playing time but two of their most talented lineman left in Alex Lewis and the early departure of David Bakhtiari to the NFL. However Gus Handler, Daniel Munyer and Jack Harris are all holdovers that played most of last season. The Buffs additionally have a home run threat in Tony Jones to go with Powell. Their unknown starts with most important position, Quarterback, where a crowded group of 8 that thinned to 4. Connor Wood is a transfer from Texas that has taken over the lead role after sounding like a scout stud his redshirt year and looking lost in his light game action seen in 2012. He was highly rated coming out of high school and the Buffs need to see that player to have any hope of seeing some success.
The Buffs defense lost a key cog in Will Pericak. It also lost three long-time but often injured starters in Jon Major, Ray Polk and Doug Rippy. Each player had great promise going into Colorado and due to numerous issues, just didn't ever get to that tradition of great defensive players. The Buffs do return a defensive captain and their most consistent and hardest hitting player in Derrick Webb at WLB and have a third year starter in Chidera Uzo-Diribe who has the potential to have a great end to his CU career and post double digit sacks after reaching 7 last year. A player that seems to find the ball and seems to be on Year 6 as a Buff is Paul Vigo. The Buffs remaining front 7 is inexperienced and will have to grow quickly to keep the big uglies from CSU from dominating the Line of Scrimmage early. The Colorado secondary was exposed all season. They didn't make plays and had many growing pains. The good news is some of these guys got better and there is a two deep for CU in the secondary that all have double digit starts.
What this all means for the outcome of the Rocky Mountain Showdown:
The Rams are a much more experienced team with a complete year under the McElwain system. However, this is the same group that held on to a victory against a Colorado team that was so badly outcoached the second half when Colorado stumbled repeatedly, the Rams seemed to as well. A year under McElwain probably helps with those stumbles and makes Colorado State more entertaining on offense to start 2013.
The Buffaloes have experience across the board, but have been kicked repeatedly. This staff seems to have the teams mind right and this team has more weapons and will have an established backfield and receivers to put up numbers offensively.
Uunlike last year and years past, this game is not going to be a boring game where the teams are just tripping over themselves repeatedly. The Rams should eating up clock on offense and the Buffs striking quickly and then following it up with spreading the ball around the field.
This is a complete toss-up game and many unknowns, but the speed and ability to spread the ball around and make more big plays on offense for the Buffs has me believing that the Buffs will win this game in a closer than expected 31-27.
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