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Friday, November 18, 2016

College Football Playoffs Nightmare Scenario

The College Football Playoffs (CFP) have had it pretty damn easy the first two years of their existence come season end.  There are always these scary scenarios, but things tend to play out.  This year, the first two loss team is probable to make it in the college football playoffs.  Let's review the last two seasons simplistic:

In 2014, the four finalists were Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Ohio State.  The Big XII was left out due to having two 11-1 teams in Baylor and TCU and the conference naming them dual champions.  The committee favored the quality wins of the remaining Power 5 conferences and having a TRUE conference champion and championship game.  It was clean and simple.  TCU fans were livid, but the wins by FSU and OSU in their championship games allowed them to leapfrog TCU.

In 2015, despite only 1 Loss, Ohio State was left out of the CFP Final 4.  The committee had an easy choice with 1-seed Clemson and an Alabama and Michigan State team that had knocked off Ohio State and beat undefeated Iowa in a closely contested conference title game.  The question was whether Ohio State would leapfrog OU to get to #4.  The committee squashed that talk picking OU and favoring the 1-Loss conference runner-up in Iowa and jumping PAC 12 conference champion Stanford above the Buckeyes.  The committee favored the conference champion with quality wins over the runner-up that couldn't make the title game.

So what does this have to do with 2016, you ask?  EVERYTHING!  The CFP committee has shown that a conference champion is more well revered than a 1-Loss division runner-up.  In this year's CFP, there are still 11 teams vying for the CFP Final 4.  The committee will have their work cut out for them unless the teams remaining are Alabama, Michigan, Clemson and Washington with no more than 1 Loss.  Here is a breakdown of the 11 teams by conference:

SEC (1)-Alabama.  That is it.  They are in unless something insane happens.  There is not another team in the SEC with any chance of making the College Football Playoffs.  Don't give me Florida, you crazy Gators fans. (1 bid)

ACC (1)-Clemson.  Clemson's finishes with Wake Forest and South Carolina and then likely Virginia Tech.  Clemson is in if they win out.  If they lose any of their games, they would be out and .  They would have 2 bad losses compared to many others. (0 or 1 bid)

Big XII - 2 (3)-Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and West Virginia all have a shot as Big XII conference champions.  Oklahoma would have a 9 game win streak and have losses to Houston and Ohio State.  They would have ended with wins over 2 ranked conference foes.  They seem the most attractive if they win out.  But if 11th ranked Okie State wins out they will have won 8 in a row.  Unfortunately they have an ugly loss to Central Michigan and while that Loss was off a BS play, they lost and they lost to a very average MAC team and Baylor team on a 3-game losing streak.  Which leads to 14th ranked West Virginia.  West Virginia got handled by Okie State but has ran the table.  There is a reason they are ranked 14th behind (6)-2 Loss teams and a 3 Loss team, their schedule is even lighter than Okie State.  A win over their only ranked foe may or may not be enough over 2 Loss conference champs with a better resume.  The Big XII can blame themselves  if they get left out for not stepping up and becoming a legitimate conference by adding 2 or more teams to have a true conference champion.  At best they will get one in. (0 or 1 bid)

PAC 12 (2)-CU and Washington.  What, no Washington State or Utah?  No!  Utah lost to a Cal team that has to win out to make a bowl game and lost to Washington at home.  On the road, hurts less.  Washington State is done because of losing to an FCS school and a Boise State team that won't climb higher than 15th even if they remain with 1 Loss.  Washington is the easy school here.  They would have only 1 Loss if they win out.  They would have played in must win games to close out the season.  Right now, they appear to be in if they win out based off the committee preaching conference champion though they do have to worry a 2-Loss Big 1G Wisconsin or Penn State team would jump them.  Colorado is the dark horse, Cinderella story.  The fact they are being discussed drives some people nuts because they choose to focus on the past decade of CU and not today, CU is a good team and will be a great team if they win out.  CU will have faced a Top 25 Wazzu team, a Top 10 or 11 Utah team and Top 4 Washington team.  They will have won 7 straight with there last 3 being the toughest schedule to close out the season and their 2 losses will be over likely Top 10 Michigan (Top 2 if they win out) and Top 10 USC by the time the final CFP rankings come out.  No other team with two losses has close to that resume.  The Pac 12 is like the Big XII, hoping to get one in. (0 or 1 bid)

Big 1G (4)-Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin.  What a shit show.  The Big 1G may have the most teams still in contention but the fact we are here shows that the two top dogs in Ohio State and Michigan each had a ridiculous loss.  Still they are both still in contention but The Game looms large.  The victor will more than likely be in the College Football playoffs *unless Michigan or Ohio State lose another game before or after.  Michigan will have had 2 losses in 3 weeks if they lose and despite beating a team like CU, the committee has factored in Division placement and a 3rd place Michigan would likely drop behind CU if they win the Pac 12.  Sad for CU haters and Michigan fans, but the committee proved their point last  year with Ohio State and would do it again.  Penn State needs Ohio State to beat Michigan or their narrow home victory over the Buckeyes doesn't look as strong or give Penn State a chance to be conference champions.  Right now, Penn State sits in 8th place above OU and CU because of their defeat of tOSU.  Their ass whipping versus Michigan and a loss to Pitt isn't enough to hold off the teams behind them from the Big XII without being an 11-2 conference champ.  Wisconsin is actually the best team everyone is forgetting.  They had narrow losses to Michigan and tOSU in consecutive weeks but have handled their business.  If they win out, they likely would leapfrog all 3 teams minus Ohio State and even then they would  be considered a better candidate than any Big XII or PAC 12 champ.  The Big 1G will get 2 in if Ohio State beats Michigan, it's that simple (1 or 2 bid).

As you can see, there are 2 guaranteed conference bids in the Big 1G and SEC but the other 3 Power 5 schools are hoping Michigan can hold court and knock off Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State due to quality of win/loss eliminating them.

EXTRA-Scenarios for CU to get in (0% to 100%)
If CU doesn't win out, they are done, simple.  It was fun to talk about.  Great story, but they weren't ready.  BUT IF they do, here is what they need to 100% get in and then other maybe scenarios:

1. Clemson loses, Michigan wins out (90%):  This would get CU in and likely OU or 1 Loss WVU from Big XII.  It eliminates Clemson and CU jumps Penn State over quality of Wins and Quality of Losses.  Better SOS, stronger FPI.  Stronger Game Control.  CU holds everything but the big win advantage.  That changes with winning out.  Ohio State as 3rd best team in own division does not get in.  The committee has shown they aren't in favor of this.
2. Clemson, Michigan, Alabama win out (65%): Colorado would have either OU or 1-Loss WVU to have to flip a coin with. OUs losses are slightly worse than CUs but they have longer win streak and close to same end of schedule wins.

There are many scenarios where CUs chances increase, if Oklahoma loses to either WVU or Okie State, if the Big XII beats each other up and WVU is best team of group with 2 Losses.

The best thing to happen for the Buffs would be Clemson loses a game, followed by Michigan winning out.  If one of those hings don't happen, CU is at best a 40% chance to make it in.  Buffs fans better wear their Jump Man gear along with their Buff gear to close out the season!



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