Oregon State Preview
Colorado hasn't squared off against Oregon State since 1988 and thus this is the first meeting as Pac 12 conference opponents. Oregon State is 3-1 on the season. They began the season with a heartbreaking loss to Eastern Washington, whom is a FCS Division school. Unfortunately, for an Oregon State team with hopes of a big time bowl that wasn't the way for them to start their season. However, it appears the Beavers have rebounded with 3 straight wins. Delving deeper into the wins, Oregon State still has question marks to answer.
It took a big 4th quarter to come back against a very pedestrian Mountain West team in San Diego State in Week 4. They also had to win in OT against a Utah team picked to be amongst third of the Pac 12 conference.
Their one double digit win came against Hawaii whom had their highest point production against Oregon State of only 14 points and is 0-3 on the season. Oregon State hasn't impressed people the way they did to end 2012 and they look to be the middle of the Pac 12 than just below Oregon and Stanford as many prognosticators predicted them being better than the entire South Division potentially.
Oregon State returns a very dynamic passing game. It lost an NFL player in Markus Wheaton which made Oregon State one of the deadliest receiving tandems in 2012. In 2013, it probably has the better of the two still there in Brandin Cooks. Cooks is leading the nation in receiving yards, averaging 160 yards a game and 1.75 TDs per game, and is complimented by a Top 30 Receiver in Richard Mullaney. The man responsible for spreading the ball around is Sean Mannion. The Beavers quarterback has started out the season averaging 401 yards a game and is tops in the nation in passing yards. He spreads the ball around, but his main target is Cooks. Yes, the top QB and WR in the nation play in Corvallis, Oregon. (The per game numbers rank slightly lower but are still amongst the Top 5 for both).
Oregon State has had difficulties generating a running game, though they have a young workhorse in Storm Woods. Storm Woods (a very fitting name in Corvallis, just in the valley of the forests that line the Oregon Pacific coast) had nearly a 1000 yard rushing with a dozen touchdowns in 2012. While he is running behind mostly the same line as last year, he hasn't had the success on the ground. Woods has made up for it by averaging 50+ yards receiving a game and is over 100 yards from scrimmage every game between rushing and receiving. The Buffs will have to make sure Woods isn't allowed to roll out into the flat, since he has the ability to pick up big yards in the open field.
The Beavers defense has had two interceptions returned for touchdowns, but other than that highlight, they don't seem to be doing anything special. They have given up 145 yards a game on the ground and 287 per game through the air. The reason they are 3-1 and not 1-3 is their offense is helping make up for their defensive lapses.
To date the Beavers have not had much success in the return game. Their kicker has been solid and their punter average. It is a unit that hasn't wowed you. Oregon State has visions of putting together a string of victories with their next 3 against Colorado, Washington State and Cal whom are all picked to be amongst the bottom third of teams in the Pac 12. A 6-1 start would take a ton of pressure off Oregon State heading into a brutal final 5 against Stanford, USC, Arizona State, Washington and ending with their rivalry game of Oregon in Eugene.
Before the season, there wasn't much belief CU could go into Corvallis and get a win. After a 2-0 start and a less than stellar opening to Oregon State's season, this game has many people believing it could be a good game.
This is a tough game for Colorado. They will have had 21 days without a game which is nearly equivalent to the end of year bowl process. They have had a lot on their minds with many of them or their friends displaced from their residences during flooding. The positive is they have a coaching staff that has done what they did from day one, make a positive situation out of a negative one. The staff had two solid scrimmages to get the team acclimated to game speed again last week and had a shorter scrimmage to start this week. They have had two weeks to focus on Oregon State and they will have had three weeks to get over the aches and pains some were dealing with, especially Christian Powell. You could tell Powell has been running a little tender and not had the power and speed in the first two weeks. The Buffs need that threat of a running game. A pedestrian defense to establish that running game with the bruising fullback turned halfback of Powell should re-introduce him to the Pac 12 this weekend. It has hurt asking for Tony Jones or Donte Abron to get that 1 or 2 yards on 3rd down that is needed to sustain a drive or get a drive going. Both of those backs are edge runners and more dangerous in open space. Powell is dangerous when he's healthy and can hit the hole and drive. That drive has been missing with his injuries. The biggest thing the Buffs needed to work on was special teams. I would say with 3 weeks and their performances, those units got extra attention and care and it's good they didn't have to test them against Fresno State and instead will face off against Oregon State first. The worse thing they can do on the road is allow Oregon State the field position they have their first two opponents. Oregon State's offense can put up points and yardage and Colorado's defense is going to have some tough series that they haven't had to face since last year.
However, this isn't your Buffs secondary from last year. Kenneth Crawley and Greg Henderson have been blankets at corner and will have their biggest tests to date. This should be a very interesting match-up to keep an eye on and see how far the Buffs secondary has come. The Buffs must help their secondary by getting after Mannion which has not happened much this season for the Buffs and the Beavers have not allowed much pressure on their QB as well. It hasn't been discussed hardly at all but I've noticed Chidera Uzo-Diribe seems to have been dealing with some arm/hand injuries that needed some time to heal. It has affected his pass rush in the first two games from what I've seen. Oregon State on the other hand is dealing with 4 weeks without a break and has many nagging injuries that are forcing regulars to take a day or two off practice.
Paul Richardson continues to be in the Top 10 in receiving yardage while still averaging more yards per game than any receiver. He'll want to take advantage of an Oregon State secondary that has allowed some big games against much lower tiered receiving corps.
Game Predictions
Colorado will have to knock off some rust and get used to the hits and speed of facing an opponent again. The good thing is they have a couple games under their belt, the bad thing is they were less quality opponents. The Buffs will need to continue their stingy ways of not letting the opponent establish a ground game and also make defensive plays to cause turnovers, like they did against Central Arkansas, or at least end drives early, such as in the CSU game. Storm Woods is returning from a concussion so if the Buffs had Gregg Williams as coach, we know what they'd be doing, but a player coming back from a head injury usually shrugs his shoulders a little early and prepares for a hit. The Buffs should have the health advantage and the hope for them is some of these nagging injuries for Oregon State continue through the contest.
Update: Storm Woods has been announced out for the game against Colorado. Woods replacement is Junior Terrance Ward. Ward had two TDs (1 on Rush, 1 on Reception) on Saturday against San Diego State, but amassed only 36 total yards. Additionally, the offensive line has had many injury issues on what was considered a strength headed into the season. Only had two starters that have played every game. Look for Colorado to play a lot of Dime/Nickel defensive packages and try to shut down the pass and make Oregon State prove they can run the ball. Oregon state ranks 123rd out of 125 in FBS rushing currently.
The Buffs, averaging just under a 100 yards a game rushing, need to be 150 yards or over in order for this game to go their way. Oregon State will have to then help put a man in the box and allow Paul Richardson, DD Goodson and Devin Ross (or may we see Jeff Thomas' speed on display finally? The answer is no as I had previously thought and said elsewhere, since he will likely redshirt) to stretch the field. The short first-down yardage machines of Nelson Spruce and Tyler McCulloch will further allow the secondary to be thinned out for Colorado's downfield passing attack.
Colorado's biggest weakness in the passing game has been that 6-12 yard pass in the middle. For whatever reason Connor Wood has sailed many of those passes. He seems more comfortable throwing the ball to the side of the field or along the seams.
This game should see plenty of offense from Oregon State and Colorado with two dynamic playmaking receivers, in Richardson and Cooks, and two quarterbacks that able to spread the ball around, in Wood and Mannion. The Buffaloes defense had a tough time getting Central Arkansas off the field and establishing a pass rush. The Beavers tend to have similar issues. The difference for Colorado has been late defensive turnovers that have been game changers. Oregon State needed a defensive interception to get the win last week against San Diego State late in the fourth quarter. The Beavers and Colorado have many similar question marks, from a weak running attack to pressuring the quarterback, and similar strengths (strong passing game,
The difference in this game will come down to these keys:
- Special teams play (Colorado must not let the field position difference be so glaring and neither team has had much big plays of their own)
- Defensive game changing plays (Both teams lack sacks and turnovers have been difference makers)
- Establishing a ground game (Both teams have struggled to open holes for their backs and a 100 yard game by a back would probably be the difference)
- Passing Defense (Both teams passing attacks have continued to churn even with each team having either defensive issues-OSU or special teams issues-CU but which defense limits the passing attack)
Season Prediction
Colorado Coach Mike MacIntyre has proven to make needed adjustments and prepare his team. The fact he had them scrimmaging last week shows he is not an idiot and that they didn't need more and more practice, they needed competition. That will help springboard them for this game and into the season. At the beginning of the season I though they would start 2-0 and then struggle to gain traction again all year being able to get a win in conference. However, I didn't realize how big of a turnaround he was capable of. MacIntyre has said in interviews it took San Jose State a full season to wash away that feeling of losing and having a winning attitude and belief they could win any game they played. They were competitive in nearly every game that season. For all the CU hatred or disbelief because of their results, the talent level at Colorado is not as wide as people believe. Yes, they are thin behind the starting units but Colorado has similar starting talent to Utah, Cal, Washington State, Oregon State and Arizona and should compete with those teams on talent alone. I believe Colorado's difference comes in coaching. A team with more talent and playmakers like USC is showing that a great team can't be made with poor coaching. This Colorado Buffaloes team and this staff believe in one another. They CARE for each other and it shows in how they react on the sideline when they get down and in interviews when they could point fingers at each other that were there win or lose (mostly lose) in the past at Colorado.
Colorado has the ability to make a bowl game, no matter how crazy it may sound to the casual observer. The Fresno State postponement probably will require NCAA help to get a 12th game for both programs. Colorado needs to fill their October 19th game with a FBS level school to make a bowl game more achievable. There are no sure wins on CUs schedule and, other than maybe Oregon, I don't see a 99.9% chance loss either. This team is coached, prepared and shown that every game is winnable. I love that.
I am afforded the ability to look forward while the team focuses on the task at hand, the next opponent. Looking at the schedule, I have the following:
Sure Losses: Oregon
Pretty close to sure Losses: @UCLA and @Arizona State
Probable Loss: @ Washington
Toss-Ups: USC, Arizona and @ Oregon State
Need-a and Should-be-a Win: Cal, @Utah, Opponent TBD
I am drinking the Kool-Aid (Oh YEAH) this Colorado team is drinking and Mike MacIntyre and his staff is pushing. I have the Buffs going 5-7 at worse and potentially a major turnaround based off winning all toss-ups 8-4. I am going to go conservative and say 7-5 with CU getting hosed by all their FBS brothers and settling for an FCS opponent on October 18th and having to get a win at Utah to ensure a bowl game (only one FCS win counts towards a bowl game or the SEC and Nebraska would only host FCS schools outside of conference). A win against Oregon State goes a long way towards goes Bowl-ing instead of bowling in December.
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