The Denver Broncos 2015 NFL Draft started with a bang on Thursday night with a big trade that got one of the most talented players in the draft in speed rush Outside Linebacker Shane Ray but over the next two days caused a lot of head scratching and further question marks. The Broncos went into the draft with the main questions being Offensive Line, Nose Tackle and Inside Linebacker. So, let's break down the players selected, their impact on the team and what the Broncos may have not addressed.
Round 1-Pick 23: Shane Ray, OLB, Missouri (Shane Ray-NFL Draft Profile)
Shane Ray is a pass rush demon with a burst off the line of scrimmage and turning the corner/edge that will remind a lot of Denver Broncos fans of Von Miller. Ray was seen as a potential Top 10 draft pick since mid-season when he had already amassed over double digit sacks in early November.
Shane Ray's draft stock took a slight hit when an injury during the bowl weeks caused him to miss the scouting combine and prevented him from working out for teams. Still, his draft status seemed to stand no further than mid-round just a week before the draft. Unfortunately, Ray broke a cardinal rule for draft prospects, don't do anything stupid the last two weeks leading up to the draft, and got busted for marijuana possession. Ray's draft stock went down with some believing he may not get selected in the first round, over half of the mock drafts had him going in the early 20s at worse. With the Pittsburgh Steelers taking Bud Dupree, also an OLB, at Pick 22 and a linebacker hungry Carolina Panthers waiting at Pick 25, the Broncos struck fast and traded from Pick 28 to select Shane Ray at 23.
While Ray does not necessarily fill an immediate need with Demarcus Ware being 33 and on his last legs (and likely being cut or contract restructured after 2016) and Von Miller being in the last season of his rookie contract with the continued concern another failed drug test they made the right pick by getting the most talented player left on the board.
The Ray pick gets an A+ grade for his potential and the fact he could have been a Top 5-10 pick if he had stayed healthy and not made a boneheaded mistake.
Round 2-Pick 59: Ty Sambrailo, Tackle, Colorado State
While Tackle was a large hole for the Broncos and a bad roll of duct tape, the Sambrailo pick reminds me of past Broncos picks, settling and reaching too early for a guy. Before I get too far, yes I am a CU Buffaloes football fan and strongly dislike the CSU Rams, but I have a respect for the career Sambarilo put at CSU. But let's get real, no one had Sambrailo going anywhere earlier than the 3rd and many had him going 4th-5th round. He is tubby and lacks strength for an offensive lineman. His technique is solid and he is a solid all-around tackle, but he reminds me a lot of former CSU offensive lineman that have made the pros, a career back-up/6th Offensive Lineman.
There was a group of lineman much like Sambrailo that went at Picks 72, 91, 102 and 110. Pick 110 was TJ Clemmings who appeared to be all over the map from GMs but was rated a 1st or 2nd round guy by many draft guys. He is very comparable to Sambrailo in strength and ability, but seems to have a little more upside. Sambrailo appears to be at his ceiling and the Broncos picked him 51 picks before Clemmings was drafted.
I believe Sambarilo had a lot of local ties and the Broncos got over infatuated being able to have an eye and ear on him. If they liked him, the fact is they probably could have traded back 15 picks and got him or even waited until Round 3. While Tackle is a position of great need, the depth at Nose Tackle and Inside Linebacker in the new 3-4 defensive scheme were a concern headed into the draft, but we will get to that later.
I give this pick a C-. Passing barely because it fits a need on the roster but they drafted a potential starting Right Tackle last year in Michael Schofield.
Round 3-Pick 92: Jeff Heuerman, Tight End, Ohio State
The Broncos offensive scheme under Head Coach Gary Kubiak is an athletic tight end that can help block and pass protect while puncturing the middle of the defense with pass catching. Heuerman fits this bill but again, he seems more like a depth pick-up. The Broncos have Virgil Green and Owen Daniels and got a clone. Yes, Daniels is only a one or two year guy but again, Nose Tackle and Inside Linebacker seem like more immediate needs.
I like Heuerman and the team first coaching he got under Urban Meyer at OSU and how he fits the Kubiak system so I will say C.
Round 4-Pick 133: Max Garcia, Center, Florida
Center was another need for the Broncos. They have had spotty play at the position for the last couple years and they have been trying the plug and pray approach that works poorly in the NFL. They traded for Geno Gradkowski who was a back-up in all of 2014 and ranked lower by many football people than who the Broncos had tried to play. Matt Paradis of Boise State was the Broncos 6th round pick in 2014 so obviously there were questions, but this pick brought more. Why pick a power blocking Center, in Garcia, for a zone scheme that relies on being athletic and requiring movement.
Grade is a D-, fits a need but I am baffled at how a power guy fits into Gary Kubiak's scheme. It also really frustrates me considering Grady Jarrett and Michael Bennett who could play the 5/DE or pass down at 1/NT were still on the board
Round 5-Pick 164: Lorenzo Doss, Cornerback, Tulane
Doss is shorter than the coveted 6'-0" but is sized similar to Chris Harris Jr. This pick is very good in value. The unfortunate part is with Bradley Roby, Chris Harris Jr. and Aqib Talib, the best we may see is Doss in the dime package and that is if he beats out Kayvon Webster. I can't knock this pick if you are picking best available player.
Round 6-Pick 203: Darius Kilgo, Nose Tackle, Maryland
A nose tackle in the 3-4 is a 2-gap player. Kilgo is not athletic and a poor fit for a 3-4 NT. He makes sense as a 1-gap 4-3 NT. Kilgo will need to change his style of play and ability which is a lot to ask but with his size and strength, the Broncos had to take the biggest and best available Nose on the board. C- is the grade.
Round 7-Picks 250, 251 and 252 (all compensatory): Trevor Siemian, QB, Northwestern; Taurean Nixon, CB, Tulane; Josh Furman, S, Oklahoma State
Why a QB? Siemian is coming off a knee injury and has an almost 1:1 TD to INT ratio. You can not turn the ball over in the NFL. They could have just got some Undrafted Free Agent QB that provides similar ability. Nixon appears to be intriguing with track speed and a teammate to Doss. Maybe the package deal was something in order to Practice Squad Nixon and pair with Doss. Furman got into the backfield at Okie State after finding limited success at Michigan. He is the type of prospect you like to see in a secondary that has depth but not much upside and a lot of special teams ability. Still he will be moving from Linebacker to strong safety in a team with Free Safety needs. C- for the 7th round.
Overall, the Broncos draft gets a C- from me and reading many other draft analysis, they feel the same way. The Broncos got great value in Shane Ray but reached on picks and/or missed position of needs often. So, you ask, who could they have got at the picks they drafted and what did they miss?
Pick 28 to 23: No arguments here, Shane Ray was a great move by Broncos front office.
Pick 59: Randy Gregory went at Pick 60 and while Shane Ray is the same exact position, if you are taking the best available guy, you go here and maybe find yourself with great trade bait after the draft in Von Miller. I hate the thought with Von being my favorite player but his maturity is still in question and a season long suspension is still concerning. Still, this would have been crazy to think this way so I would have traded back and taken Hroniss Grasu from Oregon since Center was a need and he fits more in line with the system. Ali Marpet of Division III Hobart was intriguing enough here as well, but I take AJ Cann of South Carolina and convert to Center. The Broncos missed on the three best Inside Linebackers going picks 43-48. I would have traded my 2nd and 3rd for this pick and got either Benardrick McKinney, Erick Kendricks or Denzel Perryman if possible. If I can't trade back I take
Pick 92: Broncos don't NEED a Tight End, so I would have gone TJ Clemmings since we picked Center in Round 2. My other picks would have been strengthening defensive line and they get Henry Anderson from Stanford. He fits the 3-4 DE and goes the very next pick to Indy. A pick I hope we don't regret not making. Xavier Cooper of Washington State would have been another intriguing prospect here.
Pick 133: With this compensatory pick the Broncos could have already addressed OL in Clemmings and Grasu. This would have afforded them getting Grady Jarrett. ILB was thin here and a lot of quality guys came off the board unfortunately.
Pick 164: I like the pick
Pick 203: I pick up Hayes Pullard from USC here or Amarlo Herrera of Georgia.
Pick 250-252: These picks should be best players available and risk. I am sorry, but until La'el Collins is found guilty and arrested I take him with one of these 3 picks and say it's so we can own his rights if aquitted. If not, then it's our mistake but a likely cut candidate. Ellis McCarthy of UCLA and Joey Mbu are big DT that could have been a high upside pick. Mike Hull of Penn State and LBU was a great ILB prospect along with a handful of other guys. I see the Broncos signed NONE of the top Undrafted Free Agents at these positions.
John Elway, as your mom may say, "I'm not mad, I'm just disappointed." The Broncos have serious depth concerns in fitting into this new 3-4 scheme depending on Sylvester Williams to center the NT and depend on off-injured Danny Trevathan and a multitude of other LBs that were late round or undrafted picks. The Broncos improved with the Shane Ray pick but remained stagnant in areas lacking depth. While the Broncos should have a great offense once again and solid secondary, they lack the interior strength of the 3-4 unless Williams takes a huge leap with a move to the 3-4 and they get a healthy Trevathan and Brandon Marshall. The Broncos are again playing with fire by playing thin at LB for what seems like has been the case since Al Wilson left years ago. John Elway will not find himself on the hot seat but he should feel his seat warmers in his ridiculously high priced vehicles overheating with only one pro bowler in his five drafts and only 2 players remaining from his draft of 2011 and his 2013 draft looking to be a complete bust to date with little contributions in two seasons. One last chance with Peyton Manning, so we will see how it all plays out.
Up Next: Why Peyton Manning should be on a snap count in 2015.
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